Has Putin won?

A quick glance at Google News this morning finds headlines about Ukraine strangely, if not unexpectedly, absent.

Has the question over the future of Ukraine been solved to everyone's satisfaction? No, it has not. Major news outlets continue to emphasize the ongoing deadlock between the Washington and Moscow. Only seven hours ago more ties between the two countries were cut, as NASA severed all ties with its Russian counterpart.

The media's focus has begun to drift towards other stories, newer and therefore more exciting. The question that therefore comes to my mind is: has Putin won? 

The Crimea is now the Republic of Crimea, a federal subject of Russia. But this has not been recognized internationally and most consider the Crimean status referendum illegitimate.

Crimea as a federal subject of Russia. (Daily Mail)

To the western observer it might seem that Putin has lost more than he has gained. Putin  has re-confirmed the idea of himself and Russia as an aggressor, something to be feared and mistrusted. Economic sanctions continue to grow and the idea of Putin as a respectable world leader is most certainly in question.

However, do these consequences matter to Putin? Being feared or even hated may be a preferable to a former KGB agent turned President of the former Soviet Union. Economic sanctions have always had a debatable impact in foreign policy, will they concern Putin when so much is now at stake?

To answer those questions here's another: what does the Crimea offer to Putin and Russia? The Crimea was part of Russia for two hundred years until 1954 when Nikita Kruschev on  a whim gifted it to the Ukraine, not a problem until the collapse of the USSR made the Ukraine a separate county. The Crimea was part of Russia a hundred years longer than California has been a State, creating a significant historic bond.

The Crimean region contains an ethnic and linguistic Russian majority (Russian 60.4%), which Putin has shown both at home and abroad that he had the skill and Russia the strength to reclaim. The Crimea also retains the same strategic and military value it has always had, access to Mediterranean for the Russian Navy.

Pro-Russian troops have taken control of Kerch, on the easternmost tip of the Crimean peninsula. (BBC)

So, has Putin won?  What's important to remember is that Putin's ambitions and criteria for success are different to those of western leaders. “The West’s leaders seem, from what they say, entirely to have forgotten that there are some leaders in the world who want to conquer other countries.”, said Andrej Illarionov former economic adviser to Putin.

In foreign affairs there is rarely something as clear cut as an actual victory but he has dared a lot and gained a great deal.