Cameron, Miller and God

What has Millers resignation cost Cameron? Votes? Credibility? Sanity?

By time the next General Election comes around the current to over Maria Miller will be just another half forgotten scandal all too familiar in politics. Particularly when the ruling party has a weakness for protecting their own over serving the public interest.

Of course, Michael White(of the Guardian) hit the nail on the head, in this article, when he said that Miller's resignation had really been a victory for media oligarchs. Cameron may have suffered politically but has any justice been served? No. Has even all the money stolen, yes stolen, been given back? No.

Rather than spend any time lamenting the moral fibre of the UK political class, it is worthwhile instead to examine what this incident has cost Cameron.

Miller has been unfavourably compared to such fictional characters as Dolores Umbridge. (Harry Potter)

Loss of votes?

It won't be clear until sometime next week how the Miller fiasco has affected support for the Conservatives. In terms of voting intentions for the next General Election yesterdays YouGov poll had Labour at 36 and the Conservatives at 33, only a 3 point lead, 1 point below their average of 4. (Find more info here at UKPolling Report.)  So for the moment the impact on electorate support isn't clear but it seems very likely that Conservative support will drop, though terrifyingly it may go to UKIP rather than Labour.

Who is making strategy for the Tory government?

It's suggestive of an incredible lack of foresight that in the post-expenses scandal era that a sitting Prime Minister would allow any member of his Cabinet to remain without first ensuring they had paid back any fraudulently gained money.  Forget integrity, it's just good politics.

Where are all the women?

With Miller's resignation Cameron's cabinet has taken on a distinctly 1950's feel, with a Cabinet containing only 3 women making almost 90% male. This is strange considering Cameron promised to make a third of his ministerial cabinet female before the next election. (A promise still shy of the obvious 50% it should be.)

The Cookie Crumbles?

The worst it seems, has been saved till last. Today I read that at last night's Easter reception Cameron claimed that: “Jesus invented the Big Society 2,000 years ago, I just want to see more of it.” Further, he claimed that he was simply doing God's work when he proposed the Big Society. It seems the stress of recent events is getting to the Prime Minister, he as gone further than any recent PM in talking about his faith.

Personally, I find Cameron's comment's both a cynical attempt to gain support from the Christian community and an inappropriate declaration of piety, or rather belief in his own divinity, in a 21st century Britain. It makes Cameron seem out of touch and a little out of his mind.

The Cost

What would have been a minor incident handled properly has now turned into a gigantic media frenzy and public outrage. The Conservatives will likely lose votes, the role of women in government has suffered once again and Cameron has been forced into messianic delusions in search of support he no longer has.

Afghanistan: 13 Years On

Over a decade since the US invaded Afghanistan, what is the result?

With Afghan elections ongoing this week I find myself wondering, what has a 13 year occupation brought about? During the 19th century Afghanistan was at the centre of Russian and British rivalry in Asia, part of the so called 'Great Game'. Then during the Cold War of the 20th century, a Soviet occupation turned it once again into a key battleground for global dominance. What about in the 21st?

Occupation and Power Projection 

Referencing Russian and British rivalry. Is Afghanistan still trapped between dangerous foes?

Since 2001 a coalition of countries led by the United States has been occupying Afghanistan as a part of the larger War on Terror and more specifically fighting against the Taliban. The 2014 election will be Afghanistan's first where its own security forces are responsible for ensuring the safety of voters, in which they have been largely successful. Does this mean the Western occupation has been a 'success'? Or will the withdrawal of the majority of foreign troops at the end of this year, see the Taliban victorious?

The answer to the latter is undoubtedly no. The US will be maintaining a strong military presence for years to come, in 2012 the two countries signed the "US- Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement". In short, it categorized Afghanistan as a major non-NATO ally and allowed for a US military presence to continue well beyond the 2014 withdrawal date.

Afghanistan's strategic value is alive as ever, with China, Iran and Russia surrounding it Afghanistan provides an invaluable base of operations for the US military in Asia. Crucial to American foreign policy is preeminence in power projection, the ability to use their power all over the world,one which the occupation of Afghanistan has helped to fulfill.

The reality of US power projection.

Afghanistan Today

Despite over 90 billion dollars invested, more than in any other country, Afghanistan remains extremely poor. Something highlighted by its reliance trading heroin, of which it provides 90% of the worlds supply. However, there are also strong signs of improvement. In the last decade more than 5000 schools have been built, with more than 100,000 teachers recruited and trained. More than 5.7 million refugees have returned to the country, though it remains the largest source of refugees in the world. It is also viewed as the most corrupt country in the world by Corruption Perceptions Index.

Whose paying the price?

13 years of conflict have not brought peace to Afghanistan but there is some hope of a better future.It's easy to be critical of the US, even if necessary, yet they are at least well intentioned. With ruthless drone strikes, comes billions of dollars in investments. On the one hand a bloody fight against the Taliban, on the other more children, particularly girls, are in school.  For every negative there is a positive, but is an estimated 18,000 civilian casualties too high a price? Perhaps that is a question only Afghanistan can answer.

Has Putin won?

A quick glance at Google News this morning finds headlines about Ukraine strangely, if not unexpectedly, absent.

Has the question over the future of Ukraine been solved to everyone's satisfaction? No, it has not. Major news outlets continue to emphasize the ongoing deadlock between the Washington and Moscow. Only seven hours ago more ties between the two countries were cut, as NASA severed all ties with its Russian counterpart.

The media's focus has begun to drift towards other stories, newer and therefore more exciting. The question that therefore comes to my mind is: has Putin won? 

The Crimea is now the Republic of Crimea, a federal subject of Russia. But this has not been recognized internationally and most consider the Crimean status referendum illegitimate.

Crimea as a federal subject of Russia. (Daily Mail)

To the western observer it might seem that Putin has lost more than he has gained. Putin  has re-confirmed the idea of himself and Russia as an aggressor, something to be feared and mistrusted. Economic sanctions continue to grow and the idea of Putin as a respectable world leader is most certainly in question.

However, do these consequences matter to Putin? Being feared or even hated may be a preferable to a former KGB agent turned President of the former Soviet Union. Economic sanctions have always had a debatable impact in foreign policy, will they concern Putin when so much is now at stake?

To answer those questions here's another: what does the Crimea offer to Putin and Russia? The Crimea was part of Russia for two hundred years until 1954 when Nikita Kruschev on  a whim gifted it to the Ukraine, not a problem until the collapse of the USSR made the Ukraine a separate county. The Crimea was part of Russia a hundred years longer than California has been a State, creating a significant historic bond.

The Crimean region contains an ethnic and linguistic Russian majority (Russian 60.4%), which Putin has shown both at home and abroad that he had the skill and Russia the strength to reclaim. The Crimea also retains the same strategic and military value it has always had, access to Mediterranean for the Russian Navy.

Pro-Russian troops have taken control of Kerch, on the easternmost tip of the Crimean peninsula. (BBC)

So, has Putin won?  What's important to remember is that Putin's ambitions and criteria for success are different to those of western leaders. “The West’s leaders seem, from what they say, entirely to have forgotten that there are some leaders in the world who want to conquer other countries.”, said Andrej Illarionov former economic adviser to Putin.

In foreign affairs there is rarely something as clear cut as an actual victory but he has dared a lot and gained a great deal.

Why Ken Clarke is an idiot.

As a politician it takes a special kind of stuidity to say out loud that some kinds of rape are less serious than others. Rape is extremley heinous crime and a word with some very serious connotations. Understandbly any attempt to trivialise any kind of rape, especially by a man, causes a wave of outrage and concern. For centuries rape of a married woman was viewed as a crime against a the husband as she was his property. Until the nineties marital rape was still not acknowledged legally as a crime. In the wider world and even here in the UK rape is often viewed as the womans fault. Rape has only a 6% conviction rate. For the victim Ken Clarke's comments seem to be saying there rape was not as serious, for the media and the public it is a highly sensational story in which the "baddie" is clearly evident.


Did Ken Clarke mean to trivialise rape? Did he mean to infer that having being forced to have sex is ever ok? No probably not. It has been inferred by Labour and some media outlets that Mr Clarke thinks date rape isn't a serious crime.


This is what he actually said: 


Mr Clarke's comments came as he was quizzed on BBC Radio 5 Live about why rape sentences were on average only five years.

"That includes date rape, 17-year-olds having intercourse with 15-year-olds," he said.

"A serious rape, with violence and an unwilling woman, the tariff is much longer than that. I don't think many judges give five years for a forcible rape, frankly."

Asked if he thought date rape did not count as a "serious" offence, he said: "Date rape can be as serious as the worst rapes but date rapes, in my very old experience of being in trials, they do vary extraordinarily one from another and in the end the judge has to decide on the circumstances."

[Courtesy of the Independant]


In essence Clarke was, rather foolishly, trying to distinguish between different kinds of rape. Is a 17 year old having consensual sex with a 15 year old the same as someone being a victim  of "forcible rape"? The answer is it doesn't matter. That 17 year old doesn't need to have sex with that 15 year old. If they know they shouldn't. If they don't they should have asked. The law isn't there to protect someones right to have sex with every drunk teenager they come across. It's there to protect people from the monsters that walk among us. Clarke may be well intentioned but rape has to stay a clear cut crime.

What to know some interesting things?

No one ever accused be of being a dedicated blog writer... Still I figured there had been a sufficient gap. Today I've got some things I thought were worth mentioning but nothing in excruciating detail. So read on my friend and broaden your horizons. 

One hot topic in the UK at the moment seems to be the issue of "Islamophobia", for a detailed overview see this article here. This is a tricky one. Most of us would be uncomfortable with the label of "racist" but at the same time be quite comfortable with a healthy disdain of Islam. Personally I don't have any time for religion but Islam in particular can be accused of holding onto some very medieval nations, especially in the UK. (The US fanatical Christianity is no better.) However the problem that Baroness Warsi identifies is slippage. How easy is it to go from criticising Islam to simply being racist? So bear in mind the difference. It's easy to speak in ignorance in these matters.

On a much lighter note I'd have to recommend Kayne West's new song. "Runaway" is quite haunting but also has some excellent lyrics.

‎"lets have a toast for the douchebags, lets have a toast for the arseholes, lets have a toast for the scumbags everyone I know, lets have a toast for the jerkoffs who never take a day off..."

He has also unleashed a new 30 minute long music video! Perhaps the age of the musical is making a come back? Check out the immense video just below.

If you watched it, not bad huh? Not to everyone tastes of course but interesting none the less.Must have cost an absolute fortune to make as well. Still it's certainly a piece of art in its own right.

Southern Ireland continues to collapse, which has certain amount of ironic justice attached to it. Governing a country isn't as easy as it looks is it?(Apologies my Irish friends for that little dig, its only half serious.) Find out more about the latest here. 

Ah Tony Blair. Despite all the evidence he remains as self righteous as ever. The Chilcot Inquiries attempts to condemn him are being resisted by that all to familiar egoistical confidence. Still listening to him its easy to remember why he was so well loved up till the war. The old passion and belief in his own vision is still there. Learn more about his answers here.

That's it for today. Hope that was an enjoyable read. May 2011 be an excellent year for us all. 

Be casual. Be happy.

Deciding what to do next

Planning for the future with any degree of certainty is something only Paul Atreides and Palpatine might have enjoyed (if they existed). For the rest of us uncertainty is a part of every day life. Not knowing what's around the next corner and being aware that even our best guesses can prove to be little good in the long run.
Today I had a History seminar were one of the topics under discussion was modernity and post-modernity. We were attempting to define what these things actually were, something we couldn't hope to do in an hour given that years of scholarly work has failed to provide a definitive answer. However it got me thinking about the future.

What happens next? We can fly around the world in less than a day. (A lot less if you could still fly on a concorde.) We can communicate instantly with anyone. We can destroy the planet a dozen times over. So were is humanity headed next?

Bringing us back to the present. Let's think how difficult it must be to plan for the future as a politician. For instance the Tories massive cuts. I happen to think they are unecessary but they would argue that they are preparing for the worse. What happens if there's another economic downturn? And we are still saddled with all this extra debt? No one can know for certain what will happen next year. (Just to mention we are always in  debt, that is how governments work.)

And what about our own lives? Even when we could plan for the future we rarely do. Looking beyond the here and now can be very difficult. Get a job and have money for fun in the future? Save for a car or get smashed tonight? Enjoy sex without a condom now or avoid a baby nine months from now?

Tricky questions. Even when the answer is obvious, it can be hard to do what we know is right. Especially in the heat of the moment. Bringing us back to politics lets look at Obama. As President he faces tough decisions every day and is constantly torn between being a politician and a statesmen. For instance, when dealing with nations like Iran and China he know's it's best to be cautious and slowly forge stronger ties but the American public wants him to appear to be decisive and strong. Even is this would lead to disaster. So Obama can concentrate on winning the next election or look to America's future.

I've often said "Be Causal. Be Happy." A statement I certainly apply to my own life and would encourage anyone to apply to there's but I'm forced to also think there always an exception. Your future.

If you don't plan for it, who will? There's time yet but how much? For a lot of people University is just a delaying tactic. If I stay in education I don't have to make any really tough decision, is what we think.

So. Look ahead. Think just a little about were your headed in the next couple of years. It's the only way to guarantee your happiness. And happiness is what we are really after. The true meaning of life if you will. Don't let it slip through your fingers.

Communist Kings and Facist Presidents to be

The aftermath of NK's bombing of a SK island.

It may have been a long time since I bothered to write a blog post, in yet another fantastic display of apathy, but the world hasn't stood still in the mean time. It never does of course. Things are heating up and new dangers are brewing, the calamities of tomorrow are that much closer to being today.

I hope (not too optimistically) that you have all heard of North Korea's unprovoked attack on South Korea. The communist regime recently shelled Yeonpyeong island near the countries’ disputed maritime border last week, killing four people. The reasons for this are quite obvious, the country is suffering from an impoverished economy due to economic sanctions and mismanagement. Furthermore South Korea has recently stopped sending aid north in accordance with international sanctions. The reason for the sanctions in case you are wondering is because North Korea insists on developing nuclear weapons and testing missiles.

South Korea has vowed to bombard North Korea with air strikes if the rogue communist state launches another unprovoked attack.Kim Kwan-jin, South Korea’s new defence minister, outlined the tough stance in parliament yesterday.Mr Kim said he does not think North Korea is ready to launch a full-scale war, due to its crippled economy and the transfer of power from leader Kim Jong-il to his son, Kim Jong-un. However South Korea’s spy chief has said another northern attack is likely as tensions continue to grow.

North Korea is very much the problem of today. A permanent solution to the country is difficult to see so don't hold your breath waiting to hear about one.

I've said before that if any Western nation was to slide into fascism it would be the USA. Forget all the land of the free rhetoric, the history of the US is liberally covered in racial discrimination, war based on race, propaganda and no regard for human rights to name but a few. No where is this more personified than in the person of Sarah Palin.

We all know the woman is pretty stupid, just last week she said in a radio interview: “Obviously, we gotta stand with our North Korean allies.”. But she is gifted that with that creepy cunning so many right wing extremists seem gifted with.

She clearly has a head for business or at least employs someone who does. Palin has converted her two months of fame as John McCain’s running-mate in 2008 into a global brand and a fast-growing fortune. Her earnings are private, but her first book, “Going Rogue”, was a runaway bestseller and may have netted her $7m or more. Though I seem to recall another scary right wing extremist who wrote a book...  She is said to earn about $100,000 per speech, and her multi-year broadcasting deal with Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News reputedly earns her $1m a year. 

 She is bold: she embraced the Tea Party, though a nastier little neo facist group I cannot think of, well before their impact became obvious. She is innovative: she has perfected the art of using the new social media to reach over the heads of a hostile press, again much like Hitler. And for all that she lacks the fluency of a Barack Obama, she is a natural communicator. Her Facebook post on “death panels” altered the national debate on health reform. When she asked “How’s that hopey changey thing working out for ya?”, she encapsulated many people’s doubts about their president.  She helped put ratification of the new START treaty on hold. She even turned the president’s articulateness into a weapon against him. “We need a commander-in-chief, not a professor of law,” she told a tea-party convention in Nashville. The idea of Palin as commander-in-chief (President) should scare anyone, remember she once said she could see Russia from Alaska?

Fortunately for the world and for America, it will be very hard for anyone so divisive to win a presidential election. Mr McCain points out that Ronald Reagan, too, was accused of being divisive. But the Reagan was popular among blue-collar Democrats as well as his own party. One poll said only 8% of Democrats have a favourable view of her. Another reported that 34% of Americans saw her “very unfavourably”. She says she can beat Mr Obama, but for as long as those numbers hold nothing would suit him better than for the Republicans to choose her as their nominee for 2012. Though what it says about anyone who would support her candidacy I leave to you.

So. Things aren't all that rosy. This is just the tip of the iceberg of course. Ireland and Greece need bailing out by the EU. The wikileaks is creating a storm, even if its contents aren't that surprising. But then all things considered it could be much much worse. One thing before I sign off. You all oppose the increase in student tuition right? Have you ever read the Browne report? If not your opinion might not be as in the right as you think it is.

Be Casual. Be Happy.